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For release:
June 21, 2016

C.A.R. analysis finds presidential elections have little impact on California housing market

Prospective home buyers want current presidential candidates to address housing affordability

LOS ANGELES (June 21) – Presidential elections have historically had little or no negative impact on the California housing market, according to findings by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

"Transitory political events such as presidential elections don’t drive the housing market," said C.A.R. President Pat "Ziggy" Zicarelli. "Market fundamentals such as housing inventory, affordability, interest rates, job growth, and consumer confidence are the real factors that influence the housing market."

In an analysis of home sales dating back to 1990, the average growth in home sales during an election year is usually either slightly higher or lower each month than in non-presidential election years. Notably, sales growth is rarely negative during an election year, and there is no evidence of a systematic negative impact on home sales or prices stemming from election season. In fact, C.A.R. found that growth in home sales at the end of an election year actually outperforms non-election years by 7.1 percentage points.

On a monthly basis since 1990, California home sales contracted by roughly 2 percent during the last four months of the year. However, during the past five election cycles, sales in the final months of the year picked up, rising by 5.3 percent on average compared with -1.8 percent during non-election years. With the exception of December 2004, every single month of the final quarter saw robust growth in home sales during election years.

The pattern for California home prices is similar. C.A.R. also found little evidence of a negative effect on home prices during an election year. In fact, home price growth in California during the past five election cycles was slightly better than the long-run average of 5.6 percent. Again, the effects were most pronounced during the final months of the year when demand – and therefore, upward pressure on prices – were boosted by roughly 5.6 percentage points following the elections.

Slides (Click to open):

• Home sales growth election vs. non-election years
• Home price growth election vs. non-election years

Presidential candidates and housing policy

In a separate poll* by leading think tank The Futures Company commissioned by C.A.R., nearly three-fourths (70 percent) of survey respondents who plan to buy a home agreed that they would like the current presidential candidates to address how to make housing more affordable in their campaigns.

And, across all incomes, generations, and races/ethnicities, consumers were strongly in agreement that housing affordability should be a top priority on the presidential campaign trail as candidates make their pitches for ballots in the lead-up to the November contest.

However, housing affordability and solutions to reduce the cost of living have received noticeably little attention this campaign season. Other than releasing plans to increase the five-decades-low homeownership rate, the presumptive nominees, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, have not issued comprehensive housing policies, including action items to address the significant housing affordability crisis.

*The poll was conducted by The Futures Company in partnership with the Center for California Real Estate, an institute dedicated to the advancement of advancing real estate knowledge from C.A.R.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
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WASHINGTON (June 21, 2016) — Commercial drone use in the real estate business got a boost today with the release of the Federal Aviation Administration's final rule governing small unmanned aerial systems, or UASs, in the national air space.

Drones are increasingly being used in commercial applications, but federal regulations have required commercial drone operators to apply for a "Section 333" waiver from the FAA before they can fly. Over 5,000 waivers were issued to commercial… Read More

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HousingWire: What’s Keeping Home Prices From Rising Even Higher?
By Brena Swanson
Home prices have consistently increased around 5 percent year-over-year for the majority of the last two years, but this percentage could be severely off according to a new report from Capital Economics.

CNBC: U.S. Housing Starts Total 1.16 million in May
By Reuters
U.S. housing starts slipped in May as the construction of multi-family housing units dropped, but further gains in building permits suggested a rebound that would continue to support economic growth in the second quarter.

CBS News: Housing anxieties are rising for many Americans
By Jonathan Berr
The percentage of people who think the country has moved past the housing crisis is declining, according to a survey from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

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Join us in Long Beach from Sept. 27 to 29 for the WHO’S YOUR REALTOR®? 2016 EXPO! Along with more than 30 free sessions, a variety of educational opportunities offered over three days, and a free exhibit hall, EXPO has amazing special events to enhance your experience. Hurry and register before prices increase on June 17!

Tech Tuesday is back with a full day focused on learning the latest tech trends, how to digitize your business, and tech tools you should be using right now. Hands-on workshops, engaging user-generated segments, product demo spaces, an interactive improv session, and knowledgeable lineup of tech speakers will make this a day of learning you won’t want to miss!

Save on our popular keynote luncheons when you register for all three! On Tuesday, David Pogue, founder of Yahoo Tech and former New York Times columnist, will give a one-of-a-kind presentation on disruptive technology. On Wednesday, Captain Mark Kelly, Commander of Space Endeavour’s final mission and current Space and Aviation Contributor for NBC News/MSNBC will inspire us with his talk on leadership, determination, and courage in the face of adversity. C.A.R. Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young, will close out the lunches with insight on pressing housing issues during her 2017 Housing Market Forecast.

Other special events include a full-day Broker Conference, half-day YPN Evolve Conference, Management and Supervision CE course, Save Time Make Money with CRM course, and more!

Take advantage of early-bird pricing on these ticketed events before prices increase. Last day to save is Friday, June 17! Register at expo.car.org.

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For release:
June 17, 2016

California housing market maintains momentum in May despite tight inventory supply

Statewide median home price continues to climb; above $500,000 for second straight month

– Existing, single-family home sales totaled 410,090 in May on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 0.6 percent from April and down 3.2 percent from May 2015.

– May’s statewide median home price was $518,760, up 1.8 percent from April and 6.3 percent from May 2015.

– Year-to-date home sales are 2.2 percent higher than a year ago.

LOS ANGELES (June 17) – California existing home sales edged up in May, rising above the 400,000 benchmark level for the third straight month, while strained housing supply continued to push prices higher, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 410,090 units in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2016 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The May figure was up a slight 0.6 percent from the revised 407,560 level in April and down 3.2 percent compared with home sales in May 2015 of a revised 423,700. The year-to-year decline was the first back-to-back sales decline since November 2014.

"While May home sales edged up slightly, we are seeing a moderation, driven by tight housing inventory and reduced affordability," said C.A.R. President Pat "Ziggy" Zicarelli. "Affordable areas, such as the Inland Empire and Central Valley, where housing supply is relatively more abundant, are outperforming the San Francisco Bay Area, where thin housing availability is hampering home sales. In fact, eight of that region’s nine counties experienced a sales decline from the previous year."

A change in the mix of sales and a continued mismatch between supply and demand pushed the median price of an existing, single-family detached California home 1.8 percent higher in May to $518,760 from $509,590 in April. May’s median price was 6.3 percent higher than the revised $487,960 recorded in May 2015. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values. May marked the second consecutive month that the median price was above $500,000; it is still below the pre-recession peak of $594,530 reached in May 2007.

"The California housing market is growing modestly so far this year, with home sales running 2 percent higher year to date," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Fundamental drivers, such as household formation and economic growth will continue to move housing demand forward. However, constrained inventory, low affordability, and regional disparities will be a drag on this year’s market outlook, which is forecast to see a 1.3 percent growth in sales and a 5 percent increase in the median home price."

Other key points from C.A.R.’s May 2016 resale housing report include:

• C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index, which indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, dipped slightly to 3.4 months in May from 3.5 months in April. The index stood at 3.5 months in May 2015. The year-over-year dip was due primarily to a drop in inventory as overall active listings increased 5.8 percent from April 2016. The long-run average home supply is 6.1 months, indicating inventory levels are running at roughly 60 percent of normal.

• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home slipped in May to 27.3 days, compared with 27.7 days in April and 27.9 days in May 2015.

• According to C.A.R.’s sales-to-list price ratio*, tight inventories also appear to be driving final sales prices closer to listing prices, with sales prices rising to 99.7 percent of listing prices statewide in May from 99.3 percent in April.

• The average price per square foot** for an existing, single-family home statewide was $249 in May 2016, up from $244 in April and $238 in May 2015.

• San Francisco County had the highest price per square foot in May at $856/sq. ft., followed by San Mateo ($826/sq. ft.), and Santa Clara counties ($638/sq. ft.). The counties with the lowest price per square foot in May include Siskiyou ($121/sq. ft.), Madera ($123/sq. ft.), and Plumas ($125/sq. ft.).

• Mortgage rates were essentially flat in May, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 3.60 percent, compared with 3.61 percent in April and 3.84 percent in May 2015, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates slipped, averaging 2.81 percent in May, down from 2.83 percent in April and 2.89 percent in May 2015.

Graphics (click links to open):

• May sales at-a-glance infographic.
• Calif. existing home sales historical.
• Share of sales by price range.
• Historical condo sales.
• CA sales to list price ratio.
• CA price per square foot.

Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 38 counties.

Leading the way?® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

May 2016 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

r = revised?

May 2016 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

r = revised

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